I start with this image not because they’re overrated, but because it is awesome and the Braves are going to kill it this year. At least their lineup should. Here’s my NL East preview and my overall division winners preview, by the way. Be sure to leave your division picks in the comments. Now on to the subject of the post. Who are some of the most overrated fantasy players in 2013?
5. Buster Posey (SFG-C) – He’s the best at his position, I’m not doubting that. You could call just about any catcher coming off a career year highly overrated. His Yahoo ADP is about 17, which is a 2nd round draft pick. That means people are taking him in many cases over Justin Upton who will be better in every stat except batting average and maybe RBI. I think it’s fair to expect a batting average in the .310-.320 range with about 20 home runs from Buster, but those simply aren’t second round numbers and the drop off to a catcher 125 picks later isn’t that bad. Salvador Perez will give you about seven less home runs and hit .015 points lower, but offers a much better value pick. (This goes out the window in two catcher leagues.)
4. Yadier Molina (STL-C) – Again, it’s not that he’s a bad player, he’s very good, but what stat line can you really expect? A .300 average with 15 home runs is solid, but why not wait 150 picks and get A.J. Pierzynski who will hit .280 with 15 home runs and is also extremely durable. Rather than continue telling you to avoid over-drafted catchers, I’ll move on and trust you to get the point. (Again, this goes out the window if you’re in one of those weird two catcher leagues. Why is that a trend anyway?)
3. Edwin Encarnacion (TOR-1B) – The 30-year-old played in 151 games and slugged 42 home runs last year, but never managed to stay healthy enough to play in 150 games in any season prior. Maybe the move to first base can be partially credited for his improved health, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat. He’ll be an RBI machine in an amazing Blue Jays lineup, so if he falls to the 4th round pounce, but he is going in the early 3rd ahead of guys like Adam Jones. I just can’t pull the trigger that early on an older player who has had one great year and a track record of injury.
2. Stephen Strasburg (WAS-SP) – This guy is exciting, which explains his 2nd round ADP. It’s not that he isn’t a top-tier SP, but why not wait another round and take David Price who you could argue is the safer fantasy option. Better yet, why not wait until the 5th round and begin your rotation there, where you can still end up with guys like Sabathia, Latos, and Gallardo atop your fantasy rotation. Strasburg simply doesn’t have the track record of reliability to justify such an early selection of a pitcher.
1. Carl Crawford (LAD-LF) – Why is this guy still being drafted? At this point, his upside is maybe just a shade higher than Angel Pagan and maybe just a touch higher than Ichiro Suzuki. The upside doesn’t even come close to making up for the injury risk for a NL player who can’t throw a ball yet. If you want to take a late flier on him, by all means be my guest. My problem is he is still being drafted around 127. I’d rather take Adam Eaton much later and get a healthy young player who can steal bags and throw a baseball.
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